TRIGGERS

 

Significant Historical, Neutral, Economic, Social, or Other Factors

A.  Triggers
 
  • Assassination or forcible government change with ethnic, religious or racial implications
     
  • a power vacuum left by the withdrawal or stabilizing armed forces, collapse of a government, etc
     
  • uneasy power transfer
     
  • controversial treaty implementation
     
  • maneuvering or serious negotiating phase of peace talks
     
  • controversial/violence prone celebration, anniversary or event approaching
     
  • transfer of resource from one group to another
     
  • a  written or verbal order to destroy a group/ a call to arms
 
  • a written or verbal encouragement to target/have vengeance on a minority 
     
  • justice denied
     
  • revenge or reprisal killing over personal strife between individuals from  different groups
     
  • initiation of warfare
     
  • perceived alliance with enemy during warfare
     
  • a rapidly deteriorating military situation
     
  • a plebiscite, independence vote or other significant democratic exercise with serious implications
     
  • an act of terrorism attributed to members of the minority

 

B.  Historical
 
  • a history of massacres of minority
     
  • a history of repression by one group over another
     
  • a history of pogroms
     
  • a history of vilification or dehumanization of a minority
     
  • use of inflammatory symbols, flags or markings that conjure previous abuse
     
  • celebration of instances of perceived or actual abuse of minority
     
  • an attempt to redraw borders or regional or local boundaries according to historical claims
     
  • no history of democracy or accountability

 

 

C. Military
 
  • troop movements surrounding unarmed population
     

  • stockpiling tools of violence (such as assault rifles, machetes, torture artifacts)
     

  • brokering of weapons
     

  • increasing military and paramilitary training camps
     

  • mass destruction of property
     

  • forcible displacement

 
  • targeting of civilian pop centers
     
  • displacement
     
  • scorched-earth (i.e. government practices such as destruction of property, including agricultural land, population, etc.)
     
  • stockpiling tools of violence in conjunction with “death lists” or vilification of a group.
     
  • increasing military and paramilitary training in conjunction with “death lists” or vilification of a group

 

D. Neutral Contributing Factors
 
  • Remote geographic location
     
  • lack of internet, phone or radio
     
  • lack of press coverage
     
  • lack of transportation to and from the area
     
  • natural disaster
     
  • famine

 

E. Economic
 
  • severe downturn in the economy
     
  • traditional cash crop fails or bottoms out
     
  • ethnic, religious or racial competition of limited resources and or jobs
     
  • minority group had possession, lives on or near or has legitimate claim to valuable national resource
     
  • presence of valuable national resource in area unprotected by the central government
     
  • removal of resources from one group to benefit another
     
  • hold and/or transfer of resources
     
  • redirecting aid supplies for sale
     
  • poor infrastructure/lack of access (physical, informational) to remote hot spots
 
  • looting of minority
     
  • political marginalization of minority
     
  • off-limits to humanitarian relief
     
  • exclusion of foreigners in conflict zone
     
  • slavery
     
  • attacks on relief workers
     
  • domestic resistance to relief operations
     
  • prediction of “hunger gap”
     
  • lack of food, drought, physical insecurity

 


 

F. Social
 
  • misunderstood/misrepresented social customs that lead to raise in tension
     
  • conflicting religious sites
     
  • jealousy of minority success
     
  • marginalized group lives outside norms of social construct

Back to Methodology