Significant Historical, Neutral, Economic, Social, or Other

A.  Triggers

  • Assassination or forcible government change with ethnic, religious
    or racial implications


  • a power vacuum left by the withdrawal or stabilizing armed forces,
    collapse of a government, etc


  • uneasy power transfer


  • controversial treaty implementation


  • maneuvering or serious negotiating phase of peace talks


  • controversial/violence prone celebration, anniversary or event


  • transfer of resource from one group to another


  • a  written or verbal order to destroy a group/ a call to arms

  • a written or verbal encouragement to target/have vengeance on a


  • justice denied


  • revenge or reprisal killing over personal strife between individuals
    from  different groups


  • initiation of warfare


  • perceived alliance with enemy during warfare


  • a rapidly deteriorating military situation


  • a plebiscite, independence vote or other significant democratic
    exercise with serious implications


  • an act of terrorism attributed to members of the minority


B.  Historical

  • a history of massacres of minority


  • a history of repression by one group over another


  • a history of pogroms


  • a history of vilification or dehumanization of a minority


  • use of inflammatory symbols, flags or markings that conjure previous abuse


  • celebration of instances of perceived or actual abuse of minority


  • an attempt to redraw borders or regional or local boundaries according to
    historical claims


  • no history of democracy or accountability



C. Military

  • troop movements surrounding unarmed


  • stockpiling tools of violence (such
    as assault rifles, machetes, torture artifacts)


  • brokering of weapons


  • increasing military and
    paramilitary training camps


  • mass destruction of property


  • forcible displacement


  • targeting of civilian pop centers


  • displacement


  • scorched-earth (i.e. government practices such as destruction of property,
    including agricultural land, population, etc.)


  • stockpiling tools of violence in conjunction with “death lists” or vilification
    of a group.


  • increasing military and paramilitary training in conjunction with “death lists”
    or vilification of a group


D. Neutral
Contributing Factors

  • Remote geographic location


  • lack of internet, phone or radio


  • lack of press coverage


  • lack of transportation to and from the area


  • natural disaster


  • famine


E. Economic


  • severe downturn in the economy


  • traditional cash crop fails or bottoms out


  • ethnic, religious or racial competition of limited resources and or jobs


  • minority group had possession, lives on or near or has legitimate claim to
    valuable national resource


  • presence of valuable national resource in area unprotected by the central


  • removal of resources from one group to benefit another


  • hold and/or transfer of resources


  • redirecting aid supplies for sale


  • poor infrastructure/lack of access (physical, informational) to remote hot

  • looting of minority


  • political marginalization of minority


  • off-limits to humanitarian relief


  • exclusion of foreigners in conflict zone


  • slavery


  • attacks on relief workers


  • domestic resistance to relief operations


  • prediction of “hunger gap”


  • lack of food, drought, physical insecurity



F. Social


  • misunderstood/misrepresented social customs that lead to raise in tension


  • conflicting religious sites


  • jealousy of minority success


  • marginalized group lives outside norms of social construct

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