Significant Historical, Neutral, Economic, Social, or Other Factors

A.  Triggers
  • Assassination or forcible government change with ethnic, religious or racial implications
  • a power vacuum left by the withdrawal or stabilizing armed forces, collapse of a government, etc
  • uneasy power transfer
  • controversial treaty implementation
  • maneuvering or serious negotiating phase of peace talks
  • controversial/violence prone celebration, anniversary or event approaching
  • transfer of resource from one group to another
  • a  written or verbal order to destroy a group/ a call to arms
  • a written or verbal encouragement to target/have vengeance on a minority 
  • justice denied
  • revenge or reprisal killing over personal strife between individuals from  different groups
  • initiation of warfare
  • perceived alliance with enemy during warfare
  • a rapidly deteriorating military situation
  • a plebiscite, independence vote or other significant democratic exercise with serious implications
  • an act of terrorism attributed to members of the minority


B.  Historical
  • a history of massacres of minority
  • a history of repression by one group over another
  • a history of pogroms
  • a history of vilification or dehumanization of a minority
  • use of inflammatory symbols, flags or markings that conjure previous abuse
  • celebration of instances of perceived or actual abuse of minority
  • an attempt to redraw borders or regional or local boundaries according to historical claims
  • no history of democracy or accountability



C. Military
  • troop movements surrounding unarmed population

  • stockpiling tools of violence (such as assault rifles, machetes, torture artifacts)

  • brokering of weapons

  • increasing military and paramilitary training camps

  • mass destruction of property

  • forcible displacement

  • targeting of civilian pop centers
  • displacement
  • scorched-earth (i.e. government practices such as destruction of property, including agricultural land, population, etc.)
  • stockpiling tools of violence in conjunction with “death lists” or vilification of a group.
  • increasing military and paramilitary training in conjunction with “death lists” or vilification of a group


D. Neutral Contributing Factors
  • Remote geographic location
  • lack of internet, phone or radio
  • lack of press coverage
  • lack of transportation to and from the area
  • natural disaster
  • famine


E. Economic
  • severe downturn in the economy
  • traditional cash crop fails or bottoms out
  • ethnic, religious or racial competition of limited resources and or jobs
  • minority group had possession, lives on or near or has legitimate claim to valuable national resource
  • presence of valuable national resource in area unprotected by the central government
  • removal of resources from one group to benefit another
  • hold and/or transfer of resources
  • redirecting aid supplies for sale
  • poor infrastructure/lack of access (physical, informational) to remote hot spots
  • looting of minority
  • political marginalization of minority
  • off-limits to humanitarian relief
  • exclusion of foreigners in conflict zone
  • slavery
  • attacks on relief workers
  • domestic resistance to relief operations
  • prediction of “hunger gap”
  • lack of food, drought, physical insecurity



F. Social
  • misunderstood/misrepresented social customs that lead to raise in tension
  • conflicting religious sites
  • jealousy of minority success
  • marginalized group lives outside norms of social construct

Back to Methodology