INDIA/PAKISTAN NUCLEAR CONFRONTATION
Hotspot Micro-Report

“To compile a preliminary study of the effects of a nuclear war between India and Pakistan, focusing on the immediate and long-term consequences to civilian populations.”

The Center will rely in large part on nuclear experts, policy makers and statisticians to bring approximate values of lives lost in various nuclear catastrophe scenarios.  The report will also draw parallels between the effects of a current nuclear exchange and those estimated during the cold war.  Center staff will compile expert articles and analyses, charts, edit, publish and promote the preliminary findings.

• History and Recent Findings:  Why the risk is relevant today
   
• Cold War vs. India/Pakistan:  How the absence of checks and balances increases the danger of the situation
   
• Casualty Approximation:  Outlining the death toll in various scenarios

–         Immediate casualties (limited, partial and total deployment)

–         Fallout casualties

–         Accidental toll (three scenarios)
 

• Economic and Social Impact:  Detailing the effects of a nuclear detonation on

–         the environment, more specifically food supplies and water contamination

–         emergency services disrupted resulting in additional deaths

–         communications cut preventing the arrival of external aid
 

• Military Strategy: How different tactics taken by either India or Pakistan could affect the number of casualties, i.e. the differences between attacking military installations, populated cities or food producing regions, most notably the Punjabi Plains.
   
• Nuclear Doctrine: The importance of each country developing a doctrine for:

–         Clarity and the avoidance of misunderstanding

–         Assessing the presence of appropriate safety and security measures

–         Mutual knowledge of the criteria and circumstances under which the use of nuclear weapons by both military and political spheres would be employed.
 

• Charts:  Included throughout the report
   
• Panel Recommendations:  Expert opinions on a potential response, including preventative measures and education of the Indian and Pakistani populations.
   
• Legal Implications

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