The Early Warning System has four components beginning with:

A.        Narrowing the research focus to a manageable number of likely
locations where genocidal or pre-genocidal activities are likely to flare.

B.         Intensive
monitoring of this narrow sector of the human rights field.

Monitoring outreach to standard sources and the building of new field     

D.       When Necessary, the
emergency crisis procedure which includes:


Dissemination to policy makers

Follow up to check results

Documentation of crisis response


A.  Narrowing the Research Focus

It is during this first
step of narrowing the focus that several factors are weighed. It is
important that the Center narrow the scope of the large part of its
research on between 8-15 hotspots.  Even though the Center does not
have the resources of a major human rights organization, it is able to
fulfill its mission due to its focus on a limited number of hotspots.  A
preponderance of evidence of pre-genocidal abuse or indicators is the
criteria for considering a remote area for concentrated research. There
are four sets of indicators that are weighed.  The presence of the first
three set of indicators make the argument, in order of weighed importance,
for assigning the area as an area of concentrated research and
monitoring.  The last set of indicators detract from the argument that the
area should become or remain an area of concentration. These sets of
indicators are:


I. Genocidal or pre-genocidal
indicators or abuse

Triggers, significant historical, neutral, economic, social or other

Human rights violations that contribute to pre-genocidal conditions

Mitigating circumstances


B. Intensive

Researchers read all Center paperwork, press releases, files and reports
on the area to be monitored as well as received instruction and direction
from executive staff and mentors or senior fellows at the Center.  After
immersing themselves in the background history, key players, nature of
abuse, indicators of abuse and the present situation, the fellow or
researcher will then familiarize themselves with the wire, list serve,
media, UN and international resources available and begin monitoring these
standard areas for indications of a worsening of the ground situation. Every
day, whether at the Center or not, the researcher will check their list
serves, messages and standard information sources on line to verify the
ground status of their area of concentration.  Each researcher is assigned a
secondary area of concentration to serve as back up in case the primary
researcher in that area is unavailable for an emergency in their area.  This
secondary area of concentration requires a somewhat less stringent but still
thorough knowledge of the on the ground situation and the resources
available for the emergency crisis procedure.


C.  Monitoring Outreach to Standard
Sources and the Building of New Field

The Center must rely on
individuals in or near these hotspots for verification of abuse or
disturbance and for informing the Center when an emergency is unfolding.
Neutral third party observers are used as sources in the field to report or
verify massive human rights violations or ominous signs of abuse to come. 
The Center uses a variety of reliable and trustworthy sources including but
not limited to, members of the media, Embassy staff, Un agencies, Relief
organizations, other human rights organizations, missionaries as well as
international business persons doing work in the area.

It is the responsibility of the Primary Human Rights
Violation Monitor to contact the Center’s field sources, continue to develop
a relationship with them, assess the level of information that may be
available and to expand the Center’s contacts on the ground through the
internet, phone and fax.  The utmost care must be taken not to compromise
the identity of any of these sources to anyone outside of the Center.


D. The Emergency Crisis Procedure

Occasionally a situation
will heat up to a point where the Human Rights Violation Monitor will
indicate a crisis may be brewing or unfolding.  These crises usually take
the form of a massacre or similar act of calamity beginning to unfold or
being warned locally.  Because of our sources close to the heart of the
matter we are able to get a good feel for the situation sometimes days
before it explodes and sometimes weeks before the policy makers are aware of
it.  This makes the service we provide unique and invaluable.  If there
appears to be a situation that may result in a precursor to genocidal
conduct becoming genocidal or a clear deterioration in an area we are
monitoring, the Human Rights Violation Monitor is required to inform the
Director of the Center, or in his absence, a Board member or an appointed
executive staff member.  A decision will be made whether to invoke the
emergency crisis procedure.  The analogy of a fire engine company responding
to almost every call is apt here as there are more false alarms than not,
however, once invoked, the procedure should be followed through to its
conclusion.  The steps of the procedure (protocol) are:

I. Verification

II. Dissemination to policy

III. Follow up to check results

IV. Documentation of crisis

V.  Emergency
Crisis Procedures 2001-2003